The Yinon-Clean Break-PNAC-Iraq Chain

La chaine Yinon-Clean Break-PNAC-Irak

Part. corroborated
0.68
Credibility score
Geopolitical NeoconservatismeStrategie israelienneGuerre d'IrakInfluence israelienne Grey zone First appearance : 1982-2003 (chaine documentaire) / 2006-2007 (analyse academique par Mearsheimer et Walt)

Summary

This theory identifies a documented continuity between the Yinon Plan (1982, fragmentation of the Middle East), the Clean Break document (1996, a plan for Netanyahu recommending the overthrow of Saddam), the PNAC (2000, ‘new Pearl Harbor’), and the Iraq War (2003). The SAME individuals (Perle, Feith, Wurmser) appear as authors of Clean Break, signatories of the PNAC, and architects of the war in the Bush administration.

Detailed description

THE DOCUMENTED CHAIN:

  1. YINON PLAN (1982): Oded Yinon advocates for the fragmentation of Arab countries for the security of Israel. Opinion article but reflecting a real strategic tendency.

  2. CLEAN BREAK (1996): Richard Perle, Douglas Feith, and David Wurmser draft for Netanyahu a plan recommending the abandonment of Oslo, the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, and confrontation with Syria.

  3. PNAC (1997-2009): Kristol and Kagan found the neoconservative think tank. Document ‘Rebuilding America’s Defenses’ (2000): 'absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event -- like a new Pearl Harbor.’ Letter to Clinton (1998) demanding the overthrow of Saddam.

  4. BUSH ADMINISTRATION (2001-2009): The SAME individuals seize power. Wolfowitz proposes Iraq as early as September 15, 2001. Feith creates the Office of Special Plans. Justifications (WMD) are fabricated.

  5. IRAQ WAR (2003): Invasion. No WMDs found. Iraq fragments into confessional entities (as Yinon advocated in 1982).

OVERLAPPING PERSONNEL:

  • Richard Perle: author Clean Break (1996), PNAC signatory, president Defense Policy Board (2001-2003)
  • Douglas Feith: co-author Clean Break, Under Secretary of Defense (2001-2005), creator of the OSP
  • David Wurmser: co-author Clean Break, advisor to Cheney for the Middle East
  • Paul Wolfowitz: PNAC signatory, Under Secretary of Defense (2001-2005)
  • Elliott Abrams: PNAC signatory, NSC (2001-2009), previously involved in Iran-Contra

CENTRAL QUESTION: Does this overlap prove that the Iraq War was waged for Israel? Or is it a convergence of interests between American hegemony and Israeli security? Mearsheimer and Walt argue that the pro-Israel lobby has been a determining factor. Chomsky argues that American interests (oil, hegemony) were predominant.

Key claims

1

Le Plan Yinon (1982) preconise la fragmentation des pays arabes (FAIT DOCUMENTE)

2

Le Clean Break (1996) recommande le renversement de Saddam pour Israel (FAIT DOCUMENTE)

3

Le PNAC (2000) evoque un 'nouveau Pearl Harbor' (FAIT DOCUMENTE)

4

Les MEMES personnes signent les trois documents et dirigent la guerre d'Irak (FAIT DOCUMENTE)

5

Les ADM etaient fabriquees (FAIT DOCUMENTE)

6

La guerre d'Irak a ete menee principalement pour Israel (DEBATTU - Mearsheimer/Walt vs. Chomsky)

7

Il y a un plan continu depuis 1982 (PLAUSIBLE - continuite thematique et de personnel, mais plan 'coordonne' non prouve)

Evidence FOR (4)

Les trois documents existent et sont publics

Source : Archives publiques

Strength : fort

Chevauchement de personnel documente

Source : CV publics, nominations officielles

Strength : fort

Les ADM etaient fabriquees (Commission du renseignement du Senat)

Source : Senate Intelligence Committee Report

Strength : fort

L'Irak s'est effectivement fragmente conformement au schema Yinon

Source : Situation geopolitique post-2003

Strength : moyen

Evidence AGAINST (3)

D'autres facteurs (petrole, hegemonie, dynamique post-11/9) ont joue un role majeur

Source : Analyses multifactorielles

Strength : fort

Le Yinon est un article d'opinion, pas un plan operationnel

Source : Nature du document

Strength : moyen

Netanyahu avait rejete certaines recommandations du Clean Break

Source : Wikipedia, analyses historiques

Strength : moyen

Timeline

1982

Publication du Plan Yinon

1996

Clean Break redige pour Netanyahu

1997-2000

Fondation du PNAC, publication de 'Rebuilding America's Defenses'

2003

Guerre d'Irak. Fragmentation confessionnelle

2006-2007

Mearsheimer et Walt documentent les connexions

Factchecks (1)

FC-0532 PARTIALLY_CONFIRMED 0

Documents factuels mais causalite lineaire interpretative. Corrige vers fichier.

Summary

Documents factuels mais causalite lineaire interpretative. Corrige vers fichier.