The Neoconservative Project (PNAC)
Le projet neoconservateur (PNAC)
Summary
Detailed description
THE PNAC: A NEOCONSERVATIVE THINK TANK
The Project for the New American Century (PNAC) was founded on June 3, 1997 by William Kristol (editor of the Weekly Standard) and Robert Kagan (political analyst). It is a neoconservative think tank whose declared mission is to promote 'American global leadership.' Among its founding members and signatories of its statement of principles are several individuals who would hold key positions within the Bush administration after 2001: Dick Cheney (vice-president), Donald Rumsfeld (Secretary of Defense), Paul Wolfowitz (Under Secretary of Defense), Lewis 'Scooter' Libby (Cheney’s chief of staff), Elliott Abrams (NSC), John Bolton (Under Secretary of State), and Zalmay Khalilzad (ambassador).
Other signatories include influential intellectuals: Francis Fukuyama, Gary Bauer, Jeb Bush, Steve Forbes, Dan Quayle, and Norman Podhoretz.
THE DOCUMENT ‘REBUILDING AMERICA'S DEFENSES’ (SEPTEMBER 2000)
In September 2000, one year before the September 11 attacks, PNAC published a 90-page document titled ‘Rebuilding America's Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources for a New Century.’ This document advocates for a massive increase in American military spending, the maintenance of permanent American bases in the Middle East, the development of new-generation biological weapons, and a radical transformation of the American armed forces.
The sentence that would become famous in conspiracy circles appears on page 51: 'Further, the process of transformation, even if it brings revolutionary change, is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event – like a new Pearl Harbor.' This is translated as: 'Moreover, the process of transformation, even if it brings revolutionary change, will probably be long, in the absence of a catastrophic and catalyzing event – like a new Pearl Harbor.'
After September 11, this sentence is interpreted by conspiracy theorists as proof that neoconservatives knew that an event of the Pearl Harbor type would be necessary to implement their program, and that they therefore would have had a motive to facilitate or organize it.
It is important to note that, within the context of the document, the sentence can also be read as a simple strategic observation: without a major shock, the desired transformation would be slow. It is an analysis, not necessarily a plan.
THE DOCUMENT ‘A CLEAN BREAK’ (JULY 1996)
The document ‘A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm’ is a strategic report drafted in 1996 by a study group led by Richard Perle for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Other authors include Douglas Feith (future Under Secretary of Defense for Bush), David Wurmser (future advisor to Cheney), and Meyrav Wurmser.
The document recommends to Israel abandoning the Oslo peace process, pursuing a policy of force in the Middle East, working to overthrow Saddam Hussein in Iraq (presented as a major Israeli strategic objective), countering Syria by supporting Lebanese and Kurdish groups, and reconfiguring the balance of power in the Middle East in favor of Israel.
For conspiracy theorists, this document is evidence that the war in Iraq (2003) and the program of regime change in the Middle East were initially planned to serve the interests of Israel, not those of the United States, and that American neoconservatives (some of whom have dual American-Israeli citizenship or close ties to Israel) acted as Israeli agents within the American government.
WESLEY CLARK AND ‘7 COUNTRIES IN 5 YEARS’
In 2007, four-star General Wesley Clark, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), revealed explosive testimony during a conference and in interviews. According to Clark, a few weeks after September 11, 2001, a senior Pentagon officer showed him a memorandum from the Secretary of Defense’s office describing plans to attack and overthrow the governments of seven countries in five years: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Iran.
Clark has recounted this episode repeatedly, notably in his book Winning Modern Wars (2003) and during a speech at the Commonwealth Club in 2007. Clark's testimony has not been corroborated by other official sources, and the memorandum itself has never been published. However, it is notable that military interventions or regime changes have indeed taken place in several of the countries mentioned (Iraq 2003, Libya 2011, Syria indirect intervention, Somalia special operations, Sudan sanctions and pressure).
THE ROLE OF NEOCONSERVATIVES IN THE WAR IN IRAQ
The connection between the PNAC and the war in Iraq is the most well-documented part of this theory. As early as January 1998, PNAC sent an open letter to President Clinton calling for the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. After September 11, neoconservatives within the Bush administration immediately pushed for an invasion of Iraq, despite the lack of a link between Iraq and Al-Qaeda.
Paul Wolfowitz proposed attacking Iraq as early as September 15, 2001, during the Camp David meeting. Douglas Feith created the 'Office of Special Plans' at the Pentagon, which produced alternative intelligence analyses to justify the war (the infamous weapons of mass destruction that did not exist). Vice-President Cheney exerted unprecedented pressure on the intelligence community to produce conclusions supporting the war.
The absence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, the fabrication of evidence (the aluminum tubes, Colin Powell’s presentation to the UN with doctored information, the British ‘dossier’ plagiarized from a student thesis), and the links between the architects of the war and the PNAC and the Clean Break document constitute a set of documented facts that provide a substantial factual basis for concerns about the real motivations behind the war.
The dissolution of the PNAC in 2009 and its succession by the Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI), also led by Kristol and Kagan, suggests a continuity in the neoconservative project despite the discredit brought on by the Iraqi catastrophe.
CONCLUSION: BETWEEN FACTS AND THEORIES
It is essential to distinguish between documented facts (the existence of the PNAC, the content of the documents, the positions held by members, lies about weapons of mass destruction) and theories (September 11 as a planned or facilitated operation by neoconservatives). The facts clearly establish that neoconservatives had a pre-existing program of geopolitical transformation of the Middle East, that September 11 served as a pretext to implement it, and that deliberate lies were used to justify the war in Iraq. Determining whether September 11 itself was planned or facilitated is a question of a completely different order, for which the evidence remains insufficient.
Key claims
Le PNAC etait un think tank neoconservateur dont les membres ont occupe des postes cles dans l'administration Bush (FAIT AVERE)
Le document 'Rebuilding America's Defenses' (2000) evoquait le besoin d'un 'nouveau Pearl Harbor' (FAIT AVERE - citation exacte du document public)
Le document 'A Clean Break' (1996) recommandait le renversement de Saddam Hussein pour les interets d'Israel (FAIT AVERE - document public)
Les architectes de la guerre en Irak etaient les memes personnes qui avaient redige ces documents (FAIT AVERE)
Les justifications de la guerre en Irak (armes de destruction massive) etaient fabriquees (FAIT AVERE - confirme par la Commission du renseignement du Senat)
Les guerres au Moyen-Orient post-11/9 suivaient un plan preexistant visant 7 pays (ALLEGUE par Wesley Clark, non corrobore par des documents officiels)
Le programme neoconservateur servait principalement les interets d'Israel plutot que ceux des Etats-Unis (DEBATTU - interpretation)
Le 11 septembre a ete deliberement planifie ou facilite par les neoconservateurs pour mettre en oeuvre leur programme (SPECULATIF - pas de preuve directe)
Evidence FOR (7)
Le PNAC existait reellement et ses documents ('Rebuilding America's Defenses', lettres au president) sont des documents publics
Source : Archives du PNAC, disponibles en ligne
Strength : fort
La phrase sur le 'new Pearl Harbor' figure textuellement en page 51 de 'Rebuilding America's Defenses' (2000)
Source : Document PNAC, septembre 2000
Strength : fort
De nombreux membres du PNAC ont effectivement occupe des postes cles dans l'administration Bush et ont ete les architectes de la guerre en Irak
Source : Nominations officielles du gouvernement Bush
Strength : fort
Les justifications de la guerre en Irak (ADM) etaient fabriquees, comme confirme par la Commission du renseignement du Senat et l'absence de decouverte d'armes
Source : Senate Intelligence Committee Report (2008), Iraq Survey Group (2004)
Strength : fort
Le document 'A Clean Break' (1996) recommandait explicitement le renversement de Saddam Hussein dans l'interet d'Israel
Source : Document public, Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies, 1996
Strength : fort
Le general Wesley Clark temoigne avoir vu un memorandum sur les plans de changement de regime dans 7 pays
Source : Temoignage de Clark, 2003/2007
Strength : moyen
Des interventions ou des operations ont effectivement eu lieu dans la plupart des 7 pays mentionnes par Clark
Source : Evenements geopolitiques post-2001
Strength : moyen
Evidence AGAINST (5)
La phrase 'new Pearl Harbor' peut se lire comme une observation strategique, pas comme un plan d'action ou un voeu
Source : Analyse textuelle du document
Strength : fort
Il n'existe aucune preuve directe que les neoconservateurs aient planifie ou facilite les attentats du 11 septembre
Source : Commission du 11 septembre, enquetes FBI/CIA
Strength : fort
Le temoignage de Wesley Clark sur '7 pays en 5 ans' n'a pas ete corrobore par d'autres officiels et le memorandum n'a jamais ete produit
Source : Absence de corroboration
Strength : moyen
Exploiter un evenement (ce qui est avere) est fondamentalement different de le planifier (ce qui est allegue)
Source : Analyse logique
Strength : fort
Les motivations de la guerre en Irak incluaient aussi des interets petroliers, la politique domestique, et la dynamique de securite post-11/9, pas seulement les interets israeliens
Source : Analyses multiples de la guerre en Irak
Strength : moyen
Timeline
Publication de 'A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm', redige par Richard Perle et al. pour Benjamin Netanyahou
Fondation du Project for the New American Century par Kristol et Kagan
Le PNAC envoie une lettre ouverte au president Clinton demandant le renversement de Saddam Hussein
Publication de 'Rebuilding America's Defenses' avec la phrase sur le 'new Pearl Harbor'
De nombreux membres du PNAC prennent des postes cles dans l'administration Bush
Attentats du 11 septembre. Les neoconservateurs poussent immediatement pour l'invasion de l'Irak
Wolfowitz propose d'attaquer l'Irak lors de la reunion de Camp David
Creation de l'Office of Special Plans par Douglas Feith. Fabrication du cas pour la guerre en Irak
Presentation de Colin Powell a l'ONU avec des preuves fabriquees sur les armes de destruction massive irakiennes
Debut de la guerre en Irak. Aucune arme de destruction massive ne sera trouvee
Wesley Clark publie 'Winning Modern Wars' mentionnant le memorandum sur 7 pays
Scooter Libby inculpe dans l'affaire Plame (revelation de l'identite d'un agent CIA pour punir un critique de la guerre)
Wesley Clark raconte publiquement l'episode des '7 pays en 5 ans' lors de conferences
Dissolution du PNAC, remplace par le Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI)
Factchecks (1)
FC-0523 PARTIALLY_CONFIRMED 0 Documents publics factuels mais interpretation comme plan operationnel non soutenue. Score entre index et fichier.
Summary
Documents publics factuels mais interpretation comme plan operationnel non soutenue. Score entre index et fichier.
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